Forecasting the Chase
Eight races remain before the Chase for the Championship begins, so like a weatherman let’s take a look at our Doppler and see what the forecast is calling for. And remember, like a weatherman my accuracy rate is only about 10%.

Top 12 as of Now: Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Kasey Kahne.

Who Moved In: Kasey Kahne used a 15th-place run at Daytona to propel him to the 12th and final Chase transfer spot.

Who Moved Out: Despite three wins on the year, Mark Martin dropped two spots in the standings and is now on the outside looking in after his second finish of 35th or worse in the last three-weeks.

Outside Looking In: Martin is 65 points in the arrears of Kahne, while David Reutimann is 74 points short of making his first Chase for the Championship. Jeff Burton still has a shot at making the Chase, albeit a small one, as he trails Kahne by 105 points.

Forecast: It’s all but a lock at this point that drivers in positions one through four are going to make the Chase. Edwards, Hamlin, Newman, Kyle Busch, Biffle, and Kenseth still have work to do, but they all should get in assuming they don’t self-destruct. Which as history has taught us in years past is no guarantee.

If Juan Pablo Montoya keeps knocking out top-10 finishes like he has the past seven-weeks than you can reserve spot for him. But that’s a big if, so at this point I’m thinking Montoya comes up a bit short in his bid to make the Chase.

The way the schedule sets up really favors Kasey Kahne down the stretch as he’s won races on four of the eight remaining tracks. The problem is that the 5 car of Martin will be just as formable on those tracks, plus Martin has the better team behind him. Martin though desperately needs to put together some consistent finishes otherwise he’s going to end up like Tony Stewart in 2006, who led the series in wins, but yet didn’t qualify for that years Chase for the Championship.

David Reutimann and Jeff Burton don’t have the speed or the consistency to make the cut, though both will still be in the mix come Richmond.

In the end, looks for Kahne and Martin to grab the final two Chase spots. Both have shown that they can win races and run up front, which is something Montoya has yet to show that he can do.
Posted: 7/8/2009 9:43:43 AM
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