Forecasting the Chase
Top 12 as of Today: Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, and Greg Biffle.

Who Moved In: While there was some jostling inside the top-12, no driver this week moved inside the cutoff for the Chase.

Who Moved Out: As noted above no drivers dropped out of the top-12 for the week, but a few drivers inside the top-12 are inching themselves closer to the Chase bubble with continued mediocrity.

Outside Looking In: Kyle Busch moved up one spot in the standings to 13th, but still trails Greg Biffle for the 12th and final spot in the Chase by 101 points. Right behind Busch is the streaking Brian Vickers, who with momentum on his side, based on five-straight top-10 finishes, is now in Chase contention, just 103 markers in arrears of Biffle.

Forecast: The 12 drivers, who are in position to make the Chase for the Championship right now, might very well be the 12 drivers we see competing for the championship come September.

Stewart, Johnson, Gordon, Kurt Busch, and Hamlin are all locks to get into NASCAR’s postseason. While barring any unforeseen circumstances, Edwards, Kahne, Montoya, Newman and Martin all should be making plans to race for this year’s crown.

If you do the math, which has never been my strong suit, I did go to a Wisconsin college after all; there are two spots up for grabs to make the Chase. Competing for those final two spots are Matt Kenseth (11th), Greg Biffle (12th), Kyle Busch (13th), Brian Vickers (14th) and barely hanging by a thread, Clint Bowyer (15th) and David Reutimann (16th).

It’s going to take some stellar finishes and a lot of luck for either Bowyer or Reutimann to get in. Frankly though, neither of them has it in them to get it done, so we can go ahead and cross both of them off of our list.

While Vickers has been running great the past month, and runs very well at Michigan, there are too many tracks on the horizon where he has historically struggled. Look at his average finish at Watkins Glen (23.2), Bristol (23.0), and Richmond (19.5) and tell me that this looks like a driver who in the next five races can make a move into the top-12. Unfortunately for him, Vickers championship aspirations will have to be put on hold until next year.

So it boils down to Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Kyle Busch. Kenseth and Busch won four of the first five races this year, but that was a longtime ago, and neither looks close to their early season form. Kenseth though does have a bit of momentum going, having three top-11 finishes in the last four races. Add in the fact that Kenseth has won on three of the five tracks left in the regular season, and I think he continues his streak of making every Chase for the Championship, a record he shares with Jimmie Johnson.

Greg Biffle may have more top-fives than either Kenseth or Busch, but he seems to be heading in the opposite direction with only one top-10 in the last six races. Biffle’s track record this year shows that he’s streaky, both good and bad. Does he have another good streak left in him to sneak in? I think not, which means Kyle Busch would get the nod if…

Busch can somehow just start putting some good finishes together. And finishes is the key word here. Busch has run well the past two races, running in the top-10 in both. The problem is that the finishes haven’t been there, with Busch blowing a tire at Indy, and scraping the wall hard at Pocono. That being said, no driver outside of Jimmie Johnson is more capable of running off a winning-streak than Busch is, no matter how inconsistent he has been this year. Can a driver who has only one top-10 since Memorial Day, and driver who hasn’t finished inside the top-five since his win at Richmond in early May, make the Chase? I say yes, which means Busch will have a chance to atone for his disappointing Chase a year ago.
Posted: 8/6/2009 6:07:32 PM
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