Lazarus's Blog: The Undead Fantasy Racing Analyst
A few weeks ago, I proposed a new NASCAR Nextel Cup points system that goes as follows:

Pos       Points
1 200
2 180
3 160
4 140
5 120
6 100
7 90
8 80
9 70
10 60
11 50
12 40
13 30
14 20
15 10
16-43 0

Bonus Points

Lead 5% of Laps:
5
Lead Most Laps:
5
Qualifying on Pole:
5

I gave a number of reasons for proposing this new system. It would reward teams that perform at the highest levels most often: the teams that score the most wins, lead the most laps, and score the most top-5s, rather than the teams that are consistently just "solid" or "good," score lower top-10s and top-15s regularly, and grab the occasional win or two while staying out of trouble and having the least mediocre finishes. In too many seasons, teams like this have been rewarded with championships, while teams that perform at a truly dominant level on on a fairly regular basis are relegated to runner-up finishes. It eliminates the ability to stay out a lap while other cars are pitting in as a basis for scoring bonus points, and it instead makes teams have to compete hard and fight for bonus points, a tactuc the "solid" teams used in their advantage to beat the dominant teams. Also, in this system, you would see more volatility in the standings: teams that start off the year great and tail off to solid or mediocre the rest of the year would fall, while teams that get off to a rough start and reach dominant level mid-season shoot up the standings, with high fluctuation depending on good and bad stretches within seasons.

I have gone back to three seasons in which the final standings were controversial and sparked wide debate over the fundamentals of the points system: 1993, 1996, and 2003. In each of these seasons, a driver won the most races by a wide margin, scored the most top-5s, and was either 1st or 2nd in the series in laps led. (Rusty Wallace in 1993, Jeff Gordon in 1996, Ryan Newman in 2003) All three drivers lost to drivers (Dale Earnhardt in 1993, Terry Labonte in 1996, Matt Kenseth in 2003) who had significantly less wins and laps led, and in 1993 and 2003, less top-5s. Below are the results of each season under my poitns system:

Position Driver Points



1 Rusty Wallace 3565
2 Dale Earnhardt 3385
3 Mark Martin 2690
4 Dale Jarrett 2490
5 Ernie Irvan 2455
6 Kyle Petty 2035
7 Ken Schrader 1915
8 Ricky Rudd 1900
9 Morgan Shepherd 1690
10 Bill Elliott 1680
11 Jeff Gordon 1525
12 Jimmy Spencer 1335
13 Darrell Waltrip
 1285
14 Davey Allison
 1275
15 Harry Gant 1225
16 Geoffrey Bodine 1020
17 Sterling Marlin 965
18 Brett Bodine 955
19 Terry Labonte 915
20 Bobby Labonte 655
21 Wally Dallenbach, Jr. 580
22 Ted Musgrave 530
23 Michael Waltrip 495
24 Rick Mast 485
25 Alan Kulwicki 400
26 Hut Stricklin 315
27 Kenny Wallace 240
27 Phil Parsons 240
29 Rick Wilson 220
30 Jimmy Hensley 210
30 Dick Trickle 210
32 Lake Speed 190
33 Derrike Cope 175
34 Bobby Hillin, Jr.  170
35 Greg Sacks 150
36 Joe Ruttman 120
37 P.J. Jones 80
38 Bobby Hamilton 70
39 Scott Lagasse 30
39 Jeff Purvis 30
41 Dave Marcis 10
41 Mike Wallace 10

In this season, Dale Earnhardt held a 325 point lead entering the second Richmond race in my system. It was at this point that Rusty Wallace went on a tear, winning 5 of the last 8 races and finishing top-5 in 2 others. Earnhardt's problems at Dover and Martinsville brought Wallace right back into the hunt, as Wallace took the lead at Martinsville and held it the rest of the way. The deficit was 30 heading into Atlanta (which is a small enough deficit to possibly be eliminated by beating an opponent by one track position), which would have made for a much more thrilling finale.

And now, for a much less drammatic season; 1996:

Position Driver Points



1 Jeff Gordon 4205
2 Terry Labonte 3695
3 Dale Jarrett 3570
4 Mark Martin 3050
5 Dale Earnhardt 2695
6 Rusty Wallace 2315
7 Ernie Irvan 2290
8 Ricky Rudd 1880
9 Bobby Labonte 1670
10 Sterling Marlin 1635
11 Jeff Burton 1470
12 Bobby Hamilton 1290
13 Michael Waltrip 1125
14 Ken Schrader 1090
15 Ted Musgrave 955
16 Jimmy Spencer 950
17 Geoffrey Bodine 885
18 Ricky Craven 750
19 Rick Mast 660
20 Morgan Shepherd 625
21 Johnny Benson 580
22 Bill Elliott 545
23 Wally Dallenbach, Jr. 480
24 Ward Burton 460
25 John Andretti 425
26 Jeremy Mayfield 370
27 Robert Pressley 360
28 Hut Stricklin 325
29 Lake Speed 310
30 Kyle Petty 300
31 Derrike Cope 295
32 Kenny Wallace 250
33 Darrell Waltrip 230
34 Steve Grissom 225
35 Joe Nemechek 190
36 Todd Bodine 130
36 Dick Trickle 130
38 Brett Bodine 110
39 Bobby Hillin, Jr. 90
40 Mike Skinner 70
41 Dave Marcis 60
42 Jeff Purvis 40
43 Dorsey Schroeder 30
44 Tommy Kendall 5

As you can see, this season had a much less drammatic conclusion than 1993. In this season under my system, Jeff Gordon takes the lead at the first Pocono race and never relinquishes for the remainder of the season. His 10 wins and more than 1000 more laps led than anyone else propel him to a lead of 835 points after his 10th win of the season at North Wilkesboro, from which he is able to coast to a championship clinch at Rockingham with two races remaining. He finally wins the championship by a whopping 310 points.

And now, for the year on everyone's mind, the one that most recently ignited talk of points reform, the infamous 2003 season under my system:

Position Driver
Points
1 Ryan Newman
3445
2 Matt Kenseth
3205
3 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 3115
4 Jimmie Johnson
3085
5 Jeff Gordon
2995
6 Tony Stewart
2680
7 Kevin Harvick
2655
8 Bobby Labonte
2580
9 Kurt Busch
2285
10 Bill Elliott
1680
11 Michael Waltrip
1670
12 Jeff Burton
1545
13 Jamie McMurray
1490
14 Jeremy Mayfield
1360
15 Rusty Wallace
1305
16 Terry Labonte
1190
17 Mark Martin
1160
18 Robby Gordon
1155
19 Sterling Marlin
1065
20 Ricky Rudd
965
21 Ricky Craven
930
21 Elliott Sadler
930
23 Greg Biffle
855
24 Dale Jarrett
825
25 Joe Nemechek
750
26 Johnny Benson
575
27 Ward Burton
535
28 Jimmy Spencer
515
29 Dave Blaney
470
30 Todd Bodine
350
31 Steve Park
320
32 Scott Pruett
185
33 Ken Schrader
180
34 John Andretti
170
34 Mike Wallace
170
36 Jerry Nadeau
160
37 Tony Raines
150
38 Kenny Wallace
120
39 Scott Wimmer
110
40 Boris Said
105
41 Jeff Green
95
41 Ron Fellows
95
43 Kyle Petty
80
44 Mike Skinner
55
45 Kevin Lepage
30
45 Brian Vickers
30
47 Jack Sprague
20
47 Bobby Hamilton, Jr. 20
49 Casey Mears
10
50 Buckshot Jones
5

And, as expected, Ryan Newman is your 2003 Winston Cup Champion under my system. This season presented interesting trends. there were 5 different points after the first Dover race (Michael Waltrip, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Bobby Labonte, in that order, had all led). Matt Kenseth took the points lead at the first Pocono race and held it for a long time, maximizing it at 395 points after the second Richmond race. But starting at Richmond, it was Ryan Newman's championship. 3 wins and 8 top-5s in the final 11 races shot him up the standings, while problems at Talladega and Kansas stalled Kenseth's run. Newman took the lead at Kansas and never relinquished, clinching the championship at the fall Rockingham race with a race to go and winning the championship by 240 points.

Soon to be reported: one other controversial year (1973, in which Benny Parsons won the championship with a one-win season), several close calls (1988-1990, 1992, 1997, and possibly others), and the two Chase seasons. In any event, I would say that the results of these seasons under my system indicate that my system more accurately reflects and rewards the true dominant performers of the season who are worthy of being champions.
Posted: 9/7/2006 6:06:00 PM Total Comments: 1
Group A

Picks

1. Matt Kenseth- Kenseth has been the man this year on the "rough" tracks: Bristol, Darlington, and Dover. He has top-5s in all three races at the tracks so far this year, with a win at Dover. These tracks require smooth, consistent driving for success, and this is Kenseth to a T. Last year, Kenseth made a mockery of the field in this race, leading 415 laps en route to a dominating win in which no one could touch him. In the last two races at Bristol, Kenseth has led 539 of 1,000 laps, and he won the pole for this race last year, so he should be a great bet for big bonus poitns. Coming off a win at Michigan, Kenseth is the runaway choice in this group.

2. Jeff Gordon- The rough tracks, historically, have been Gordon's best tracks in Cup. He has a combined 15 wins at Bristol, Darlington, and Dover, and he has dominated many more races with a multitude of top-5s and top-10s. He's been one of the top drivers at these tracks this season, with a second place finish at Darlington, a top-5 in the making at Bristol before the last lap spin, and a strong performance at Dover in which he led a ton of laps early that ended in a 12th place finish on account of not being able to keep up with the track in adjustments. Jeff and the 24 team have stepped up their performances big time this year, with 2 wins and strong performances on intermediates and downforce tracks. With a second place finish at Michigan that, if the race were a few laps longer, could have been a win, Jeff will also have great momentum coming into Bristol. Furthermore, with nearly 2400 laps led at the track, four career poles, and an average start of 5th, Jeff is a great bet for mad bonus points.

Rest

3. Kurt Busch
4. Greg Biffle
5. Tony Stewart
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Carl Edwards
8. Mark Martin
9. Ryan Newman
10. Jamie McMurray

Group B

Picks

1. Kevin Harvick- This pick in Group B is unbelievably obvious. Bristol has been one of Harvick's best tracks since the beginning of his career; in 11 races, he has 6 top-5s and 8 top-10s, with a win in last year's spring race. He has been great on the rough tracks this year, with top-5s at Bristol and Dover. Last week's race at Michigan snapped a 6 race top-10 streak and 5 race top-5 streak, although he managed a good 11th place finish (which, for the 29 team recently, could be considered mediocre). However, this team still has momentum on its side, and with their record at Bristol, this should translate to another win-contending run.

2. Kyle Busch- There aren't many who have been better on the rough tracks this year; in fact it can be argued that, next to Kenseth, Shrub and the 5 team have been the best. They have been in the maximum points combination in Group B in each race this year. They have swept the top-10 so far at Bristol, Darlington, and Dover, with a top-5 at the latter track. This team has been awesome in recent races, with a six-race top-10 streak that was snapped at Michigan, a race in which they looked to be headed toward a top-5 performance before the right-front tire blew. Nevertheless, they are in solid position as of now, sitting 7th in points with a 90 point cushion on 11th place Kasey Kahne, and with their performance on the rough tracks this year, Shrub is a great pick in this group.

3. Bobby Labonte- Bobby has typically been good on the "rough tracks," with wins at Darlington and Dover, and he, like Kenseth, presents the type of driving style and experience that you want to have in a driver for these types of tracks, especially Bristol. He showed just how important these factors are in the spring, as he came home with a top-5 finish at Bristol. Furthermore, his team is chocked full of successful experience at the track, with past Bristol winner Todd Parrot's guidance in the preparation of the car before he left to go back to RYR and Robbie Loomis overseeing the operations. If you're looking to save some other drivers in this group, BLab is a great guy to start in their place.

4. Jeff Burton- No matter where they go these days, Jeff Burton runs well, and this should certainly carry over to Bristol. Burton has top-5s in each of the last two years in this race, with a second place finish last season. He has been good on the rough tracks this year as well, with a top-5 at Dover while having one of the strongest cars there and a top-10 at Darlington. Furthermore, the 31 has been an ace qualifier this year, so there is a good possibility for qualifying bonuses as well.

Rest

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6. Kasey Kahne
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Martin Truex, Jr.
9. Elliott Sadler
10. Dale Jarrett
11. Clint Bowyer
12-20. Blah

Group C

Picks

1. Reed Sorenson- Reed is coming along quite rapidly as a Cup driver, and it shows in his results on the rough tracks this year. He has scored the most points in this group in 2 of the three rough track races this year, including an 11th place finish at Darlington, and he is two positions away at Bristol in the fall from finishing in the top-20 in all three rough track races this year. Reed mastered Bristol pretty quickly in the Busch series, scoring a 3rd place finish in his first race there in 2005, and he followed it up with an 11th place finish in the fall race. A smooth driver for a 20 year old, this is the type of track where Reed can excel where others at his experience level fail.
2. Ken Schrader- One thing you want at Bristol is experience, and Ken certainly has that. He's run 43 races at the track, which ties him for eigth all-time with Dale Earnhardt and Sterling Marlin. In the spring, Ken had a good car, but it got down laps early in the race, coming home with a 24th place finish. With his and the Wood Brothers' experience at Bristol, and the return of Fatback McSwain, the 21 is poised for a good run this weekend.

Rest

3. Jeff Green
4. JJ Yeley
5. Scott Riggs
6. Kyle Petty
7-On. Blah

Sleepers

Group A

Greg Biffle- Over the last couple of years, Biffle has been one of the best in the business on the rough tracks, which suit his "up-on-the-wheel" style well as long as he doesn't go over the edge. He has three wins in the last year at these tracks (two at Darlington, one at Dover), and he has swept the top-10 at Bristol in that time period, only finishing out of the top-10 in one of these races overall. (Fall Dover) The 16 team is in desperation mode, and it is time to crank out a barn-burner race or two if these guys have Chase hopes left. This weekend could well be one of those.

Group B

Kasey Kahne- Kahne has been quite good on the rough tracks this year. He has top-10s at Bristol and Dover, and he had a great run at Darlington before problems started. This is another team that needs to turn out some good runs soon if they're going to make the Chase, so the 9 car may be worth a bet this weekend.

Group C

JJ Yeley- JJ was having a terrific run at Bristol in the spring before an accident got him. He looked to be headed for a top-10 finish, if not a top-5, which is impressive for his experience level. As they bring that same car back, and with a need to start putting up good finishes soon, JJ is a good underdog pick this weekend.

Busts

Group A

Jamie McMurray- It is just not his year this year, although he does have a good record at Bristol. There are better picks in this group.

Group B

Anyone beyond Bowyer

Group C

Anyone beyond Petty
Posted: 8/23/2006 4:39:00 PM Total Comments: 1
I have read a thread on the forum on the topic of caution flag laps, in which a variety of views were discussed. I'm glad that this topic has come up, because it has allowed me an opportunity to discuss something that particularly bugs me and to propose another change that, in my view, is more than overdue. I approach the issue of caution laps from a similiar perspective to that which I approached the issue of the points system two weeks ago. The fundamental premise of racing is competition: competition on track between ergonomic fusions of man and machine to be the best, or at least better than the next guy. In auto racing, this only occurs during green flag laps at which the field is racing at full speed, and drivers are allowed to advance their positions on the track.

With this said, I propose that NASCAR no longer count caution laps during the scoring of the race. These are laps in which competition simply does not take place, so if we are to be consistent with the fundamental premise of racing, then laps in which competition doesn't take place shouldn't be counted. Furthermore, there is no reason why, if track officials make the call to suspend competition, they should take away opportunities from on-track competitors to advance their spots in the process by counting caution laps.

Ending the counting of caution laps would have consequences from a competition standpoint. There would be much less of an incentive to attempt a risky pit strategy toward the end of the race (within about 20-30 laps of the finish) if they will not have the benefit of 5-10 of those laps being uncompetitive laps in which they can maintain their positions, which could further ensure that the faster cars are the ones at the top at the end. It would also create a major disincentive to attempt fuel mileage strategies, nearly eliminating this play from the book and, again, empowering the faster cars up front toward the final stages of the race.

Some would say that there would be obstacles in the way of implementing this change, so much so that it would be unfeasable. The main obstacle that could get in the way is that races would be lengthened. This might be true, but my counterargument on this point is that the lengthening wouldn't have been that much. Let's take this past weekend's race at Watkins Glen, in which there were 22 caution flag laps. The green flag laps were about 1 minute per lap, so really, we're looking at no more than about 25-27 additional minutes being added to that race. On oval tracks, there are typically about 25-40 caution laps, with green flag times typically being between 25-50 seconds per lap. On short tracks, there are typically anywhere between 65-100 caution laps at about 15-20 seconds per lap. With this considered, we're probably looking at no more than about 25-35 minutes being added to on-air time of races. This is about the length of the pre-race shows, which are very marginal in importance and can be scrapped if needed to accomodate. If this route isn't taken, then this is not an unreasonable additional duration for networks to deal with, and I'm sure they will accomodate. If anything, this would make sponsors quite happy to have additional available on-air ad time.
Posted: 8/16/2006 4:49:00 PM Total Comments: 1
Group A

Picks

    1. Jimmie Johnson- The name of the fantasy game is consistency, and there is no one who more consistently performs well on intermediates and general downforce tracks than Jimmie Johnson. In the six intermediate races this year, he has a win, 3 top-5s, and 6 top-10s. Add to that his win at Indianapolis and his two top-10 finishes at Pocono, and it is clear that his team has a great aerodynamic package for the cars. Furthermore, Johnson has been a great qualifier this year, so he should be in for a great deal of qualifying and laps led bonus points. With Hendrick power under the hood, he will have the motor to get down the straightaways quickly. Jimmie is your bet for a top-10 here.

2. Matt Kenseth- Once again, consistency is the name of the game, and Kenseth has had a ton of that this year. He has a win, four top-5s, and five top-15 finishes this year on the intermediates in 7 races, and he has led the most laps at Chicagoland before being spun by Jeff Gordon. He also has two more top-5s at Pocono and Indianapolis this year. It’s pretty hard to find a bad bet in this group at Michigan, but Kenseth is an especially good one.

Rest

3. Jeff Gordon
4. Carl Edwards
5. Kurt Busch
6. Greg Biffle
7. Tony Stewart
8. Mark Martin
9. Jamie McMurray
10. Ryan Newman

Group B

Picks

1. Kevin Harvick- Talk about a team on the move. A win, six top-5s, and eight top-10s in the last 10 races says that Harvick and the 29 team are championship contenders. What’s, they are doing this on a variety of tracks, with top-5s at downforce tracks at Chicagoland, Pocono, and Indianapolis and another top-10 at Michigan sprinkled into that stretch. In nearly every way, the 29 team is performing like champions right now: top notch aerodynamic grip, top notch mechanical grip, great driver performance, great team strategy, great pit stops, great engines. The 29 car is an obvious choice in this grouph

2. Jeff Burton- Jeff and the 31 team have been awesome on the intermediates this year. They have two top-5s and five top-10s in the 7 intermediate races. Furthermore, they have had great races on other downforce tracks, with top-10s at Pocono, and Jeff led the most laps and Indianapolis before the handling of the car dropped off. Furthermore, the 31 team has a couple of poles in recent downforce track races at Chicagoland and Indianapolis, so he should be in for some bonus points. As the team continues to progress in their and carries on their near flawless run since April, look for Jeff to have another great race at Michigan.

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- The 8 car wasn’t that good in the last two downforce races at Pocono and Indianapolis, but these tracks require more than just a great aerodynamic package, but a very fine balance between aerodynamic and mechanical grip, so they weren’t great indicators of just how good the 8 car has become on downforce tracks. He has two top-5s in the last two intermediate races at Michigan and Chicagoland, having one of the dominant cars in each race. Look for the 8 team to continue that this weekend, where they need to have a good finish to stay in the top-10.

4. Kasey Kahne- The 9 car has slipped in recent weeks, but the fact remains that it has been the best car on intermediates this year. In 7 intermediate races, Kahne has been in the maximum points combination 6 times, the only failure being at Chicagoland. Furthermore, their qualifying has been awesome this year, with three poles on intermediates at Atlanta, Texas, and Michigan, and five top-5 starts on intermediates this year. They need to have a good run, so this is the type of wildcard team that usually makes for productive picks.

Rest

5. Clint Bowyer
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Kyle Busch
8. Bobby Labonte
9. Robby Gordon
10. Brian Vickers
11. Casey Mears
12. Martin Truex, Jr.
13-20. Blah

Group C

1. Reed Sorenson- Reed and the 41 team are emerging as very competitive threats, and they have been the best team on the intermediate tracks this season in Group C. They have been one of the top-3 finishers on the intermediate tracks in this group in 6 of the 7 races this year, with a top-5 and four top-10s on these tracks this year. Look for Reed to have another one of these weekends this weekend.

2. JJ Yeley- Yeley has been very good on the intermediates this year, with top-10s at California and Chicagoland and a number of other good performances that ended sourly. He has had some quality finishes in the last five races, with top-12 finishes at Chicagoland, Loudon, and Pocono, and he was running in the top-10 and top-12 at Indianapolis for a great deal of the day until late trouble. Yeley is a great bet in this great.

Rest


3. Scott Riggs
4. Ken Schrader
5. Jeff Green
6. Tony Raines
7. David Stremme
8. Paul Menard
9-on. Blah

Sleepers

Group A

Kurt Busch- The 2 team has been one of the best teams in Cup since Pocono, emerging as the best Dodge team out there, and they’ve done it on a variety of tracks. The team seems to have found a very nice aerodynamic package, with two top-5s and all top-10s in the last five downforce track races (both Poconos, Michigan, Chicagoland, Indianapolis). After very disappointing weekends at Indianapolis and the Glen that should have produced much more, and with a need to collect a massive amount of points in a long-shot to make the Chase, look for the 2 car to be one of the best this weekend at Michigan.

Group B

Clint Bowyer- RCR in general has stepped its program up to the top of the sport, with two drivers in the top-5 in points and another young rookie who is beginning to rise. Bowyer has a top-5 and two top-10s in his last three downforce track races (Chicagoland, Indianapolis), and in the other (Pocono), he had an awesome car before being taken out by Stewart. At Michigan in the fall, he had another great car, starting 9th, before trouble struck. This could very well be another RCR weekend, and Bowyer should be in for another great performance.
 

Group C

Ken Schrader- The 21 team has made very fast progress since Fatback McSwain took back the reins at crew chief. Whereas before, they were lucky to run top-25 on the downforce tracks, they have top-15 performances and finishes in the last two at Pocono and Indianapolis. With the Roush-Yates engines and a continuation of this progress, the 21 car could be in for a nice run at Michigan this weekend.

Avoid

Group A

Ryan Newman- Not really much of a need to explain this one. About the only places where this team has been competitive this year are road courses, short tracks (somewhat), mile-long flats, and restrictor plate tracks.

Group B

Anyone past Truex.

Group C

Anyone past Menard.

Posted: 8/16/2006 4:29:00 PM Total Comments: 0
Sorry I missed the Brickyard: last week was my last week at my summer job, and I had some things that needed to be finished before my swan song.

In any event, here's this week's preview for Watkins Glen:

Group A

1. Tony Stewart- There are a few options in Group A, but really, there are only two you should take, Smoke being one of them. Stewart is one of greatest drivers in the world, and as such, he is one of the greatest road racers in NASCAR and in its history. He has 5 road wins in his career, with three straight from the Glen '04 to the Glen '05, and he is consistently a top-5 and top-10 performer. The Glen is where Stewart has had his best success and is his better track, as three of his wins and his overall best performances have come here. Furthermore, the Gibbs cars have the braking and transmission packages that are needed to win on road courses, and this is especially true in the transmission at the Glen, which is vitally important being that the Glen is a higher speeds than Infineon and greater horsepower is needed to power cars out of turns 4, 9, and 11 down the long straightaways into the inner-lube, the left-hander in turn 10, and the hard downhill right-hander in turn 1, which are the best passing opportunities on the track. At the Glen specifically, Smoke is the man to beat.

2. Jeff Gordon- Like Stewart, Gordon is one of the greatest drivers in the world, and he is arguably the greatest road racer in NASCAR history. (Being that he's the winningest and all) Jeff seems to be better at Infineon (like Stewart is at the Glen), but it's pretty darned hard to argue with four wins at the Glen (and probably at least a couple more, barring getting wrecked by other drivers, including Stewart himself once). Last year after the Glen, Gordon told his team that better brakes were needed in order to compete with the 20 car on the road courses, saying that the 20 car's braking package allowed Stewart to pick up lots of time on corner entry. It was also clear that the 20 team's transmission was faster than the more reliable Jericho transmission used by Hendrick at the Glen last year, so the Jericho transmission had to improve in speed. Both packages where improved upon, and it showed at Infineon, as Gordon outclassed the field from the 11th starting spot en route to his first win of the year and his 9th career road course win. It will be interesting to see how the braking and transmission improvements will carry over to the Glen. Jeff's next win will tie him with Dale Earnhardt,Sr., and his next road course win will make him the first driver in NASCAR history to win 10 road races. Being that Jeff is the winningest road racer in series history, the Glen is perhaps a very fitting place for #76 to occur: on his landmark grounds in NASCAR history. Not to mention that, if he wins the Glen, it would be his third road course sweep of his career.

Rest

3. Mark Martin
4. Kurt Busch
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Ryan Newman
7. Greg Biffle
8. Jamie McMurray
9. Carl Edwards
10. Matt Kenseth

Group B

1. Robby Gordon- If you don't start Robby Gordon in this Group, you are certifiably nuts. Robby, of course, has a long history of success and experience on road courses in a variety of series, and this is certainly true in NASCAR. He has two wins to his credit in 2003, and he could have at least a couple more if not for circumstances. He knows how to build a quality road course car, and he has had great cars in all three of his races with his new team. He finished second last year to Stewart, and he was one of only a handful of people with a car capable of getting alongside Stewart. Every road races since 2001 has been won either by Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, or Robby Gordon. Don't expect this to change at the Glen.

2. Brian Vickers- This is seems like a pick out of left field, but Vickers is the secret weapon this weekend, my friends. He has taken a serious dedication to learning road course racing, and it has shown the last couple of times out. He finished 8th in this race last year the day after leading the most laps en rote to a 3rd place finish in the Busch race. Earlier this year, he was fast at Sonoma the enitre weekend, but was relegated to the back after a bad qualifying performance. He came back from a 42nd palce qualifying performance to put in a solid 14th place finish, most of the spots gained on track. And of course, that weekend, he dominated the West series race en route to a win. Brian is a very underrated young road racer, and with Hendrick cars under the hood that have traditionally been great road course cars (especially his particular car number, which used to make a mockery of the field under Tim Richmond), expect Brian to have a good top-10 performance this weekend.

3. Kyle Busch- Kyle Busch has also quickly learned road racing. He came home with an 11th place finish at Infineon after running in the top-10 for a good bit of the race. Last year, he was running in the top-15 for most of the day and late in the race until an altercation put him in a spin and relagated him to a 33rd place finish. Last year at Infineon, he qualified 13th and was running in the top-10 until the Hendrick transmission failures bit him. He has been on a serious roll, with a win, three top-5s, four top-10s, and all top-15s in the last five races. Expect him to continue tihs run at the Glen.

4. Jeff Burton- One thing you want to have on road courses is experience, both at the shop and behind the wheel. And Jeff Burton has had plenty of experience on road courses, a lot of it good. He led the most laps at the Glen in 2001 before finishing second to the road course king himself, Jeff Gordon. This year, he brought home an excellent 7th place finish at Infineon. Furthermore, he's driving a car that has a good history on road courses in the not too distant future, as Robby Gordon drove it to a sweep in 2003. Burton has been nearly bulletproof since April, not finishing out of the top-15, and he's coming off a race that he dominated and had a car capable of winning at Indy in which the team didn't keep up with the track with adjustments. Expect Burton to be solid at the Glen.

Rest

5. Denny Hamlin
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Martin Truex, Jr.
9. Casey Mears
10. Clint Bowyer
11-18. Don't even go there.

Group C

1. Boris Said- An obvious choice in this group. When you combine a road racing talent with the experience of Boris Said and Roush technology (which has been a proven winner on road courses in Cup and Trans-Am), you have at least a top-5 combination that will quite probably contend for the win. Boris has been close to numerous wins in his Cup career on the roadies, and he nearly always finishes top-5 or top-10. He's reliable and a threat for the win. And remember: buy more SoBe cases, so we can see more Boris races.

2. Scott Pruett- Another obvious choice in this group. Pruett has two top-5s in the last three years at the Glen, with 3 top-6 finishes in the last four. Last year's 4th place finish came in this car, and he is guaranteed of a starting spot. Scott will be a great bet for this weekend.

Rest

3. Terry Labonte
4. Ron Fellows
5. JJ Yeley
6. Ken Schrader
7. Reed Sorenson
8-on. No one.

Spoilers

Group A

Jimmie Johnson- In the fantasy preview for Indianapolis that I started, I had Johnson listed as the darkhorse in Group A: look how that turned out. Again, it is weird to consider Johnson and the 48 team darkhorses anywhere, but they are not traditionally a road course bet. In a year in which he scored his first overdue plate win, it could be time for them to get their first road course win. Johnson's been pretty good on the road courses in Cup, especially at the Glen. He has scored two top-5s at the Glen in the last three years, and he has a top-10 this year at Sonoma. Furthermore, the team has developed a car for the road courses based on Corvette technology, which is supposedly a revolution for Cup. With this car and with the road racing history of Hendrick Motorsports, look for Johnson to be a contender for the win this weekend.

Group B

Denny Hamlin- Here's another young driver who has learned road racing very quickly. Hamlin came from 40th to score a solid 12th place finish at Sonoma, and he won the Mexico Busch race this year for his first career Busch victory. Furthermore, he has the road racing technology of JGR under his hood, which has been awesome for Stewart. Look for Denny to be a contender for a top-10 at the Glen.

Group C

Terry Labonte- The 3rd place finish at Sonoma was no fluke. Terry has road racing wins under his belt at the old Riverside raceway, and he has consistently run well on road courses in his career. He will have a JGR car underneath him, which again has shown to be quality road racing equipment. Furthermore, with the big gamble at Sonoma, this team has shown it is willing to make a road racing gamble for a great finish. Terry is a great bet this weekend.

Busts

Group A

Matt Kenseth- Among the top drivers in Cup, Matt Kenseth is just one who has never gotten the hang of road racing, and he has made his disdain for it public. IF you don't like something, it's hard to be good at it, so stay away from the ambivalent Kenseth

Group B

Anyone past Bowyer.

Group C

Anyone past Sorenson.
Posted: 8/9/2006 9:43:00 PM Total Comments: 0
        Being a fan of many different racing series, but primarily NASCAR, one of the things that these other series really do better than NASCAR is their respective points system, particularly Formula One which I consider to have the best points system in the world and the one most consistent with the premise of auto racing. In F1, only about 36% of the field gets points (1st through 8th, out of about 22 entered cars), and the top-two finishers get "big" points with a big drop-off to third and one-point drop-offs down to eigth. This is a points system that highly rewards winning, competitiveness, and aggressiveness in driving, strategy, and engineering.

        The NASCAR points system overly rewards mediocre performance in the forms of finishing 16th-43th or for bringing a critically damaged car back out onto the track in order to gain a few positions (and potentially as many as 15-20 points, sometimes), and it overly rewards "contentment" with top-10 finishes. Matt Kenseth shouldn't be able to win a championship when he wins one race and six drivers behind him win more races and score moe top-5 finishes just because he happens to finish less mediocrally on his bad days that the other drivers do. This points system is not consistent with the premise of racing, which is to go faster than anyone else on the track and to win (or at least finish as highly as is possible for you, your team, and your car to finish). And with the increasing competitiveness of NASCAR, the series should institute a points system that truly emphasizes competitiveness. 

        With that said, I have conceived a new potential points system for NASCAR that combines elements of NASCAR, F1, and Champ Car, as follows:

Pos       Points
1 200
2 180
3 160
4 140
5 120
6 100
7 90
8 80
9 70
10 60
11 50
12 40
13 30
14 20
15 10
16-43 0

Bonus Points

Lead 5% of Race
5
Lead Most Laps*
10
Qualifying on Pole
5


        This new system rewards competitiveness and places a higher emphasis on winning and finishing top-5 than on contentment with top-10s. It stops the practice of teams bringing critically damaged cars on the track to gain a few extra points with laps run, which reduces traffic for competitive cars and eliminates unjust reward for finishing poorly. It makes teams earn laps led bonuses by running competitively or by using risky, and potentially savvy, strategy rather than just by staying out an extra lap during a green flag pit stop cycle or by staying out a lap under caution, which often rewards uncompetitive teams. At the same time, it does allow some "forgiveness" for drivers/teams with bad finishes due to unforseen factors unrelated to performance by awarding the laps-led bonus points and pole bonus points, rather than allowing teams that run 20th or so and wreck to earn points by finishing sub-30th and to potentially earn more points just by patching their cars together and running at 75% speed on the track to accumulate laps, which is what the current system does.

EDIT:

I've just applied this system to this year, and these would be the current standings under my system:

Driver
       Points


1. J. Johnson 2155
2. M. Kenseth 1860
3. T. Stewart 1660
4. K. Kahne 1600
5. K. Harvick 1535
6. Ky. Busch 1480
7. J. Gordon 1460
8. J. Burton 1440
9. G. Biffle 1355
10. Earnhardt, Jr.
 1305
11. D. Hamlin 1265
12. C. Edwards 1250
13. M. Martin 1175
14. Ku. Busch 1160
15. R. Newman 750
16. B. Vickers 715
17. J. McMurray 685
18. C. Mears 540
19. E. Sadler 505
20. S. Riggs 480
21. C. Bowyer 455
22. R. Sorenson 455
23. B. Labonte 450
24. J.J. Yeley 300
25. B. Said 215
26. R. Gordon 210
27. M. Truex, Jr. 180
28. D. Jarrett 180
29. T. Labonte 165
30. S. Marlin 130
31. K. Schrader 130
32. P. Menard 110
33. K. Petty 80
34. J. Green 70
35. D. Stremme 50
36. J. Mayfield 40
37. J. Nemechek 30
38. D. Blaney 30

I don't know about you, but to me, that is a pretty spot-on reflection of this season as far as team and driver performance are concerned.
Posted: 7/28/2006 6:18:00 PM Total Comments: 1

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